I want to describe the Iranian dream that we could witness within our own lifetimes—a dream that, under conditions of peace, stability, freedom, political and cultural opening, and sound management of Iran’s human and natural resources, could become reality in less than twenty years.

The value of the assets held by Iranians living abroad has been estimated at 1.3 trillion dollars. According to official CBI data alone, 170 billion dollars of capital has left Iran over the past twenty years.

According to data from CISRUS, an independent centre for social research, more than 110,000 Iranian scientists and highly skilled professionals are engaged in research and knowledge production in different fields and countries, while 400,000 Iranian physicians, engineers and specialist professionals are working around the world.

The return of only 15 per cent of this global wealth and human capital to Iran during the first five years of social change would mean the return of 200 billion dollars in capital, twenty thousand scientists and highly skilled professionals with international experience, and sixty thousand physicians, engineers and specialist workers. This figure of 15 per cent is presented here as comparable to the proportion of people who returned to Poland and Vietnam after war. I believe Iran could experience a return on an even greater and more powerful scale.

In 2016, when some sanctions were eased following the JCPOA, Iran quickly reached five billion dollars in annual foreign investment in 2017, and projections suggested that within one or two years, even while many sanctions remained, that figure could reach fifteen billion dollars a year. To imagine investment of thirty billion dollars annually and 150 billion dollars during the first five years of change is entirely reasonable and achievable.

Italy and Turkey each earn close to fifty billion dollars annually from tourism. With changed conditions, Iran possesses at least a comparable capacity, while today, under the conditions created for our homeland, Iran’s tourism revenue may struggle to reach even one billion dollars.

Iran possesses the world’s second-largest natural-gas reserves, yet in 2023 alone twenty billion cubic metres of gas were burned and lost because the equipment and technology needed for collection and compression were unavailable. The situation in Iran’s oil industry, in a country presented here as having the fourth-largest oil reserves in the world, is similar. There is also enormous and underdeveloped potential in solar and renewable energy. Iran is described here as possessing the world’s largest zinc resources, the second-largest copper reserves, the ninth-largest iron-ore reserves, and as ranking among the fifteen richest countries in lead, sulphur, strontium, lithium and many other elements.

Imagine also everything that could develop in film, music, literature and philosophy in a country with Iran’s historical richness, and the cultural soft power that could become a transformative force in the region and the world.

To all of this add the revenue Iran could generate from modern agriculture, advanced and modern industries, pharmaceuticals and health, and its role as a secure communications route and commercial corridor between East and West.

On a conservative estimate, in only five years the living standard of every Iranian could improve fourfold and gross national product could rise from 400 billion dollars a year to 1.5 trillion dollars annually. In less than twenty years, through its remarkable human and economic capacity, Iran could surpass everything countries such as South Korea achieved through economic reform and, with annual gross national product exceeding four trillion dollars, take its place among the world’s ten largest economies alongside countries such as France, Britain and Canada.

These are not inaccessible dreams. They are genuine possibilities on Iran’s future horizon. This would not simply be a change. It would be the awakening of a great civilisation from a long historical sleep—a transformation and splendour we could witness within our own lifetimes. An Iran capable of restoring stability and peace to the turbulent Middle East and deepening friendship with its neighbours.

When the storm subsides and we look back, we will understand why all these events occurred in Iran’s contemporary history: how the departure of highly skilled people led to their return with global experience, and how Iran shook the heavy dust of history from itself and began its renaissance.

The distance between us and this future is only the distance between our belief in its possibility and the distance between our hands. Through hope and unity, the sunrise of the future lies beyond the final night before us.

Aydin Areta